Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
